FIFA World Cup Qualifying betting preview (January 30)

Canada vs USA Odds

Canada Ratings +180
United States Odds +175
To design +180
More less 2.5 (+135 / -190)
day | Time sunday | 3:05 p.m. ET
Site Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
How to watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Keep up to date football odds here.

Canada and the United States can each put a virtual foot in Qatar with a victory in Sunday’s decisive CONCACAF World Cup qualifier at Tim Horton’s Field in Hamilton, Ont.

The Canadians are in sensational form, winning their fourth straight Thursday in a 2-0 triumph over Honduras to stay atop the final round standings. On the other side, the Americans also got the result they needed on Thursday, but they were less impressive in a 1-0 home draw against El Salvador. They remain second, sitting one point behind Canada and one point ahead of Mexico.

A win combined with a loss for Panama at home to Jamaica could put Canada eight points clear of safety in the race for the automatic three berths for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The United States would have seven points ahead with an away win and a Panamanian defeat out of 14 in total.

Those teams settled for a 1-1 draw in their September meeting in Nashville.

Canada thrives without Star Davies

If Canada are definitely a weaker team without Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies, it certainly didn’t show in Thursday’s win.

Davies was ruled out with myocarditis, but coach John Herdman’s side didn’t miss a beat with his clinical performance in a struggling Honduran side. Tajon Buchanan’s excellent work down the right flank created a first own goal in the 10th minute. Then Liam Fraser found Jonathan David for a sensational finish on the break in the 73rd minute to seal a 2-0 victory.

Herdman was also able to preserve Mark-Anthony Kaye by leaving him out of the trip. The influential defensive midfielder was a major showpiece for the United States in those teams’ previous 1-1 draw, but has been sitting on a yellow card ever since.

Beyond the icy conditions expected in Hamilton, the Canadiens could have another subtle advantage on the pitch: synthetic turf. This will be their third home qualifier on a synthetic surface after securing victories over Costa Rica and Mexico in Edmonton in November.

CONCACAF Ranking FIFA World Cup 2022

Canada 5-0-4 19
United States 5-1-3 18
Mexico 5-2-2 17
Panama 4-3-2 14
Costa Rica 3-3-3 12
Jamaica 1-4-4 seven
El Salvador 1-5-3 6
Honduras 0-6-3 3

Triumph not hiding US problems at Striker

Manager Gregg Berhalter’s side never looked in much danger of conceding in Thursday’s narrow victory. However, the Americans’ offensive struggles – in a game where they held a 2.9–1.8 lead in expected goals (depending on the model) – underscored this team’s weakness as a forward.

Jesus Ferreira got off to a surprising start on Thursday, perhaps with Berhalter saving Gyasi Zardes or Ricardo Pepi for the Canada clash. Ferreira wasn’t terrible, but wasn’t clinical either, and the Americans demanded a goal from left-back Antonee Robinson to avoid the draw.

When the Americans last played Canada, they had to deal with the unexpected absence of Weston McKennie for breaking COVID-19 protocols. This time it’s winger Tim Weah, who is ruled out for pandemic-related reasons.

#USMNT Head coach Gregg Berhalter said Tim Weah did not travel because his vaccination – which meets all the criteria in France, where he plays professionally – does not meet entry requirements into Canada.

Weah is traveling to Minnesota today to #USAvHON.

— American Football MNT (@USMNT) January 29, 2022

Weah received her first shot, but later contracted the virus, preventing her from receiving her second dose. By Canadian standards, he is considered not fully vaccinated and is not allowed to cross the border into the country.

Brenden Aaronson is the most obvious replacement. He scored the goal for the Americans in their previous draw with Canada.

Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie played the full 90 minutes Thursday, but Christian Pulisic was called off after 65 in one of his least effective outings.

While there are still home games against Honduras and Panama, some have argued that this game is less important for the USA team. If Adams and McKennie start, that will let us know what Berhalter is thinking.

Analysis of bets and selections

If you rated this match purely by roster pedigree, the three-way line makes sense. The Americans have an advantage, but it’s small enough to be offset by Canada’s advantage on the field.

This is a short-sighted way to handicap international competition. Chemistry and group identity matter more when there is far less practice time to iron out issues.

When you take these things into account, the United States is overvalued. Canada have won four in a row and, perhaps most importantly, their performances have been more consistent.

We saw a flash or two of brilliance from the United States – the second half against Mexico at home and Honduras on the road, mostly. However, we also found inconsistency and frustration. On the road, where the Americans have won just once in four trips, that’s the norm.

That said, the value of the draw and a win for Canada could be nearly equal. So you have to be a little creative.

Canada’s responsibility is in the bottom four. The country have conceded in all four of their matches against teams in the top half of the CONCACAF table. The Americans kept a clean sheet on the outside, and it happened against a Salvadoran side who are the weakest offensively in the peloton.

In other words, 0-0 or 1-0 seems unlikely.

This makes me play two props via this bet: Canada win outright and total over 1.5 goals at +290 or game to draw with total 1.5 goals at +320 odds. I put about 52% of my money on the first and 48% on the second. If either hits, I’ll get a slightly better return than even the money.

Choice: Canada winner and total over 1.5 goals (+290) | Draw and total over 1.5 goals (+320)

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